3) Technical Analysis

What is Moving Average

Moving Average is the most basic yet most powerful indicator in the stock world. If you could only use one indicator for life, many pro traders would choose Moving Average.

Definition

Moving Average (MA) is the average stock price over a specific period that continuously moves with time. MA smooths out daily price fluctuations so you can see the real trend without being distracted by noise.

Simple Explanation (Analogy)

Imagine your Math test scores: 70, 80, 60, 90, 75. One bad score (60) doesn't instantly tank your average, right? Moving Average works exactly the same way. One day of sharp price drop doesn't immediately change the overall trend. MA looks at the big picture, not just one day's drama.

Indonesian Stock Example

BBCA is a stock that frequently 'bounces' off its 200 MA. Every time BBCA's price drops near its 200 MA line, buyers step in because historically the price has always recovered from that level. This makes the 200 MA an 'invisible floor' for blue chips like BBCA. Traders often use the 50 MA and 200 MA to spot golden crosses or death crosses.

How to Use

Add two MAs to your chart: 50 MA (medium-term trend) and 200 MA (long-term trend). If price is above both MAs, the trend is bullish.
Watch for golden crosses (50 MA crossing above 200 MA) as a bullish signal, and death crosses (50 MA crossing below 200 MA) as a bearish signal.
Use MA as dynamic support/resistance. When price dips to the MA and bounces, it confirms the trend is still healthy.

Common Mistakes

Using MA in a sideways market. MA works best in trending markets. In sideways markets, MA gives many false signals because price keeps crossing the MA line back and forth.
Using a very short MA period (e.g. 5 MA) for long-term investment decisions. Short MAs are too sensitive and cause overtrading.
Assuming golden cross/death cross is always right. These signals are often late because MA is a lagging indicator (based on past data).

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After understanding this concept, apply it in tools so decisions become more objective and measurable.

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FAQ

What's the difference between SMA and EMA?

SMA (Simple Moving Average) calculates a plain average of all prices in that period. EMA (Exponential Moving Average) gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes. EMA suits active traders, SMA suits investors.

Which MA period is the best?

There's no 'best' because it depends on your trading style. For scalping: 9 MA and 21 MA. For swing trading: 20 MA and 50 MA. For investing: 50 MA and 200 MA. What matters is consistently using the same settings.