3) Technical Analysis
What is Volume
Volume is often overlooked by beginners, yet it's a professional trader's secret weapon. Price can go up or down, but volume tells you whether that move is legit or just hot air.
Definition
Volume is the total number of lots or shares traded within a specific period. High volume indicates many active participants, while low volume shows lack of market interest.
Simple Explanation (Analogy)
Imagine a street protest. If only 10 people are shouting on the sidewalk, the impact is tiny — even the police don't care. But if 100,000 people march down the street, that's a serious movement and change will happen. Volume in stocks works identically: if price rises but volume is small, it's like a 10-person protest — not convincing. But if price rises with massive volume? That's a real and powerful move.
Indonesian Stock Example
When ASII announced strong financials, the price rose 5% on volume 3 times the daily average. This was a valid move because many market participants were involved. Compare that with a penny stock that rises 10% on thin volume — that's often market manipulation that can trap you at the top.
How to Use
- Always check volume when price makes a significant move. Price up + high volume = strong signal (bullish). Price up + low volume = suspicious.
- Watch for volume spikes (sudden volume surges). These often mark the start or end of a trend. A volume spike at a price bottom could signal smart money accumulation.
- Compare today's volume with the 20-day average volume. If today's volume is 2x or more than the average, that day's price action deserves attention.
Common Mistakes
- Buying a sharply rising stock without checking volume. A rise without volume is like an inflated balloon — it can deflate any time.
- Ignoring volume during breakouts. A resistance breakout without heavy volume is usually a false breakout that traps you.
- Not distinguishing legitimate volume from manipulation. In small-cap stocks, large volume could come from a single party artificially pumping the stock.
FAQ
How much volume is considered 'high'?
There's no fixed number — it's all relative to the stock's own average volume. Volume is considered high when it's at least 1.5x-2x the 20-day daily average. So 'high volume' for BBCA is a very different number than 'high volume' for a small-cap stock.
Is low volume always bad?
Not always. Low volume during sideways price action is normal. What's dangerous is when price rises or falls sharply on low volume — that means the move isn't supported by many participants and is likely unsustainable.